WITH little more than two weeks until polling day, Independent member for Tamworth Peter Draper has declared a "two-horse race" for the seat.
However, Country Labor candidate Denise McHugh sees herself as the dark horse in the campaign.
At a political forum
in Tamworth on Monday
night, four of the five
candidates in attendance were given an opportunity to comment on the current political climate.
Mr Draper said in his view there were only two serious contenders.
"Without any disrespect to Denise or Neville, this is very much a two-horse race in my opinion," he said.
The Nationals' candidate, Kevin Anderson, was not so sure.
"All candidates should be afforded the same chance and at this stage there are five candidates in the race," Mr Anderson said.
He has, however, joined the incumbent in choosing not to seek preferences.
"I think we should engage
in a campaign where you
just vote one," Mr Anderson said.
"That's the best part of this democracy, you can just put a one in the box."
Election analyst Antony Green says Tamworth is
"probably the Independent-held seat that The Nationals have the best chance of
recovering".
Mr Draper holds the seat by an adjusted margin of 1.9 per cent on the basis of the 2003 election.
Despite the decision by both major contenders to encourage "vote one", preferences may play a significant role in determining the elected representative. Christian Democratic Party candidate Neville Mammen and Denise McHugh from Country Labor have both announced they will unveil
from page 1
their preference choices next week.
Ms McHugh said she should not be dismissed.
She said she was experiencing a "groundswell of public support" and "without legitimate local polling" she should not be ruled out of contention.
"It is very interesting that even though I am the dark horse, I am the representative of the party favourite overall," she said.
The Labor Party has never held the seat of Tamworth and Mr Draper believes the Country Labor candidate is facing an uphill battle.
"Denise is very passionate, but the reality from my perspective is that she just doesn't have the public support; this is not a Labor electorate," he said.
Commentator Antony Green has also pondered the political sensibility of the coalition targeting independent seats in this election.
"Is it worth aggravating all of the cross-bench independents by running expensive campaigns against them, when the coalition's major focus must be taking seats off Labor," he questions.
There are at least another four political forums organised in the Tamworth electorate before the election on March 24.
Odds released by Centrebet yesterday evening have placed Nationals candidate Kevin Anderson as favourite on $1.87, scraping in ahead of Peter Draper at $1.96. Denise McHugh is third on $13 followed by Neville Mammen and Bruce Taylor who are both at the long odds of $67.
The Leader was unable to contact Greens candidate for the Tamworth electorate Bruce Taylor at the time of publication.
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